LondonRole PurposeWhy the role existsThe principal role of the Forecasting Analyst is to ensure that the forecasts generated by SELs internal and external models are as accurate and efficient as possible by maintaining and curating data, models, and calibrations.
The Forecasting Analyst can expect to contribute to projects and analysis in areas such as; PV, Wind, and CHP generation forecasting models, retail forecasting of medium to large enterprise, analysis of interaction between forward and prompt markets, improvements in shared data with traders, e.
g. weather.The Forecasting Analyst works across all teams in the trading group to develop, improve and automate the tools, systems and methodologies employed within Trading to monitor SELs forecasted position in order to minimise reforecasting and exposure to prompt and system prices.
Key ResponsibilitiesWhat the person will doEnsure that suitable tools, methodology and business processes are in place to carry out the ongoing forecasting / re-
forecasting of SELs net position in respect of PPA and Retail customers.Manage the ongoing performance of the forecasting system, in terms of forecasting frequency and accuracy.
Ensure that suitable methodology and business process are in place to monitor the ongoing performance of SELs portfolio and sub-
portfolios in respect of initial forecast error and VRM forecast error on a regular basis.Ensure that suitable business process and data arrangements (SCADA, Weather forecasts, settlement meter data etc.
are in place and that data is received in a timely manner as required by the Nominator Forecasting engine, any dependent EMC processes, and the activities implied under 3.
aboveAttend the weekly volume risk meeting and present the latest forecasting performance.Ad hoc support to the Head of Analysis and Development and any other ad hoc projects and analysis as necessary from time to time.
Provision of bespoke analysis to the trading group as requested.Performance IndicatorsHow success is measuredReduced imbalance costs and forecasting errorsMeeting and exceeding annual objectivesGood BAU competency, going above and beyond to improve & streamline processGood inter-
departmental and inter-company relationshipsExperienceWhat the person has doneGraduate in numerical degreeTime Series ForecastingDesirableExperience forecasting generation and retail sites on an individual and portfolio levelExperience of imbalance forecasting and pricingKnowledgeWhat the person knows Required : Good working knowledge of standard forecasting methods : Regression, ARIMA, GARCH, Neural Programming etc.
Ability to construct simple SQL statements for interacting with databases underlying the forecast engineWorking knowledge of ExcelDesirableAn understanding of the principles and concepts of the UK electricity market, infrastructure nad key playersKnowledge and experience of coding in a mainstream language e.
g. python, VBA, C#, C++Personal AttributesWho the person isConscientiousGood communication skillsPositivityHard workingAnalyticalAttention to detailProactive